Question: When did this story break? Where was it reported?
Answer: The majority of reports perpetuating this idea were published in January, 2009 (although they continued for some time), with the highest concentration coming in the middle of the month. Most major wire services and numerous print, television, and radio outlets, US and foreign, some more grounded than others, reported some version of it.Sources:
Question: Where did this idea originate?
Answer: A report written by the United States Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM), an organization within the Department of Defense devoted to the ongoing evolution of American military capabilities.
Sources:
09-Jan-08 "Among top U.S. fears: A failed Mexican state" NY Times
13-Jan-09 "U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible" El Paso Times
15-Jan-09 "Report: Mexico On Verge Of Collapse" NPR
16-Jan-09 "Mexico in danger of collapse, says US army" Daily Telegraph (UK)
16-Feb-09 "Worst Case Scenario" Fox News
13-Jan-09 "U.S. military report warns 'sudden collapse' of Mexico is possible" El Paso Times
15-Jan-09 "Report: Mexico On Verge Of Collapse" NPR
16-Jan-09 "Mexico in danger of collapse, says US army" Daily Telegraph (UK)
16-Feb-09 "Worst Case Scenario" Fox News
Question: Where did this idea originate? Answer: A report written by the United States Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM), an organization within the Department of Defense devoted to the ongoing evolution of American military capabilities.
Sources:
Question: What does this report actually say?
Answer: The report, entitled "Joint Operating Environment 2008", is written primarily for military members and civilian analysts. Its purpose is to lay out strategic possibilities that the United States may face over the next quarter-century. On the very first page, a note clearly states that it is a work of speculation and solely intended to stimulate discussion about potential contingencies over the next 25 years rather than formally predict the future. The report is broken up into six main sections: “Constants”, “Trends Influencing the World’s Security”, ”The Contextual World”, ”Implications for the Joint Force”, ”Some Leading Questions”, and ”Concluding Thoughts”. The third part is longest, and includes among other subheadings, “Technology”, “The Battle of Narratives”, and “Potential Challenges and Threats”, which is broken down by continent and lists the Middle East and central Asia as “The Center of Instability”. Pakistan is described in the “Weak and Failing State” portion as the nation most befitting of the title. In the entire 56-page report, the possibility of Mexico suddenly descending into a “narco-state” is mentioned in a grand total of two paragraphs. By contrast, Russia and China each have three whole pages devoted to them.
Answer: The report, entitled "Joint Operating Environment 2008", is written primarily for military members and civilian analysts. Its purpose is to lay out strategic possibilities that the United States may face over the next quarter-century. On the very first page, a note clearly states that it is a work of speculation and solely intended to stimulate discussion about potential contingencies over the next 25 years rather than formally predict the future. The report is broken up into six main sections: “Constants”, “Trends Influencing the World’s Security”, ”The Contextual World”, ”Implications for the Joint Force”, ”Some Leading Questions”, and ”Concluding Thoughts”. The third part is longest, and includes among other subheadings, “Technology”, “The Battle of Narratives”, and “Potential Challenges and Threats”, which is broken down by continent and lists the Middle East and central Asia as “The Center of Instability”. Pakistan is described in the “Weak and Failing State” portion as the nation most befitting of the title. In the entire 56-page report, the possibility of Mexico suddenly descending into a “narco-state” is mentioned in a grand total of two paragraphs. By contrast, Russia and China each have three whole pages devoted to them.
Source:
Joint Operating Environment 2008 (PDF)
Question: Mexican President Felipe Calderón has, unsurprisingly, strongly denied the “failed state” claim many times. Has anyone else?
Question: Mexican President Felipe Calderón has, unsurprisingly, strongly denied the “failed state” claim many times. Has anyone else?Answer: Yes. Individuals as disparate as U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, and Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry, among others, have all gone on the record refuting the notion.
Sources:
09-Mar-09 "Sarkozy denies Mexico is a 'failed state'" Agence France-Presse
26-Mar-09 "Despite Drug Wars, Mexico Is Not in Danger of Collapse, Obama's Spy Chief Says" U.S. News & World Report
30-Mar-09 "Sen. John Kerry: Mexico Is Not a Failed State" Associated Press
Question: Where does this fit into the overall Drug War narrative?
Answer: Prior to the release of this report, the Drug War was generally underreported outside of southern California and the southwestern border states. These stories, along with an explosion of violence in the border city of Juarez and a major increase in kidnappings (generally involving drug and/or human smugglers) in the Phoenix, AZ area, were a major catalyst for the explosion of coverage the issue has received in the weeks and months since. They spawned a considerable amount of anxiety because most of the general public had not considered how the United States could be affected should the Mexican government fail in its campaign against the cartels. Previously, the Drug War was generally considered by most Americans to be an exclusively “Mexican” problem.
26-Mar-09 "Despite Drug Wars, Mexico Is Not in Danger of Collapse, Obama's Spy Chief Says" U.S. News & World Report
30-Mar-09 "Sen. John Kerry: Mexico Is Not a Failed State" Associated Press
Question: Where does this fit into the overall Drug War narrative?
Answer: Prior to the release of this report, the Drug War was generally underreported outside of southern California and the southwestern border states. These stories, along with an explosion of violence in the border city of Juarez and a major increase in kidnappings (generally involving drug and/or human smugglers) in the Phoenix, AZ area, were a major catalyst for the explosion of coverage the issue has received in the weeks and months since. They spawned a considerable amount of anxiety because most of the general public had not considered how the United States could be affected should the Mexican government fail in its campaign against the cartels. Previously, the Drug War was generally considered by most Americans to be an exclusively “Mexican” problem.
0 comments:
Post a Comment