Friday, July 3, 2009

A Northerly View of South of the Border


[Click here to view the story at CBC.ca]

“Tijuana’s Drug War” is an in-depth examination of the drug war in Tijuana, one of the flashpoints of President Felipe Calderón’s anti-cartel campaign. The piece aired May 20th on the Canadian Broadcasting Company’s nightly broadcast, The National, which is an hourlong combination of U.S.-style network news and longer newsmagazine-type stories. Reporter Saša Petricic intersperses interviews with Tijuana’s new police chief, a former Mexican foreign minister, and the former director of operations for the US Drug Enforcement Agency with integral background information and vivid video footage.


The story opens with signs of “typical” Tijuana life: a waving flag, street scenes, and musicians. Twenty seconds in, the music is revealed to be a ballad – a narcocorrido – about the city’s infamous drug lords, which has the effect of establishing the cartels as being equally enmeshed in the fabric of the city.

The song continues through several scenes of violence before cutting to Tijuana’s police chief, Lt. Col. Julián Leyzaola, entering his office through a secure back entrance. In street clothes, he has an assault rifle casually hanging on his shoulder. The ominousness increases with the revelation that “...even he doesn’t go out without a machine gun or a heavily armed escort.” Leyzaola, who was recruited from the military to run the department after his predecessor’s dismissal, proceeds to calmly recount the chaos he inherited.

In a country replete with cartels, Tijuana’s Arellano-Felix Organization is introduced as “its most famous of all.” After offering some background, it is established that there has never been a real stand taken against them or the other cartels prior to Calderón running in and winning the 2006 Mexican election.



Former US Drug Enforcement Agency operations chief Michael Braun reinforces Calderón’s central importance to the story. He explains how the Mexican president quickly realized that Mexico could “...devolve into a narco-state, perhaps in the next decade.” Dispelling the countless stories from earlier in the year suggesting otherwise, he clearly states that Mexico is not a failed nation at this point, even though parts of the country are or have been de facto ruled by the cartels.

The story of former cartel head Edward Arellano Felix’s capture allows Petricic to make the critical point that Calderón’s successes in removing some of the old guard from running the cartels actually worsened the violence. This is because the younger generation that took over “don’t play by the old rules” of relative restraint, which explains their brutality. This is elaborated through camerawork painting a bleak picture of a gunfight and description of the ongoing violence as a turf war with no limits, specifically referencing the grotesque disposal of bodies by a notorious cartel member nicknamed El Pozolero (“The Stewmaker”).

Jorge Casteneda, Foreign Affairs Minister
under former President Vicente Fox is introduced and quickly naysays Calderón’s entire campaign. He comes across as particularly stubborn and embittered, as if to say “we tried to do something and failed, which means that anyone else who tries will also fail, so don't waste your time.” He stands in stark contrast to Leyzaola’s firm resolve and quiet confidence.

Scenes of normal life follow and then night falls. Viewers meet District Chief Victor de la Cruz, who makes an observation whose first part is as simple as it is profound, and can easily be extrapolated to the entire conflict: “The city of Tijuana is very complex because people from all parts of the country come here because we are close to the border.”
As an urgent call goes out over the radio, local police are described as critically important to the anti-cartel fight but also its weakest link because of corruption, something so often associated with this city. Chief Leyzaola reappears and firmly declares that “fixing” the police is his first priority, one that he views as a process of renewal. The viewer is left with the impression that he not only has a deep understanding of the human element in the equation, but actually cares. The Mexican military is explained to seen by the public as “much less corruptible, if a little too aggressive”, which is why their presence is generally supported – an important point that could have been clearer.

Casteneda, dismissive again, claims any attempt to clean up border cities and rid local and state police of corruption is futile (and, so, presumably, not even worth trying). His solution is to create a national Mexican police force along the lines of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. As if to reinforce his point, it is revealed that the first day the CBC team met Leyzaola, 16 members of his force, including one from his own security detachment was arrested for suspicion of corruption. This individual, we are then told, was quickly cleared and reinstated. The chief again exudes a cool, military professionalism about the incident.

Braun elaborates upon the seriousness of the corruption issue by positing it as what allowed the cartels to grow and flourish and notes their success at every level of government.

The effect of cartel-related violence on Tijuana’s citizens, described as “beyond despair” is then explored, as the story moves to a murder victim's funeral. Petricic describes how they grieve for their loved ones: “...some executed, some simply vanished, some innocent, some drawn into the drug trade as an escape from extreme poverty.” Instead of leaving the impression of Tijuana as being nothing but a city of defeated mourners, however, viewers meet a small but determined group of protesters led by the sister of another cartel victim. Her words go a long way to shatter the stereotype of average Mexicans passively accepting the situation.

As the story winds down, we are left with a determined police chief who is realistic about the near-impossible task of ever truly “defeating” the cartels but is equally adamant to command their respect at a minimum. Braun is equally realistic, emphasizing the need to maintain a “full-court press” and that the overall situation in Mexico will likely worsen before improving. The alternative is implied to have unimaginable consequences on both sides of the border. The story ends implying that Chief Leyzaola has, at best, an uphill battle ahead of him.

The Bottom Line: "Tijuana's Drug War" is well-worth watching.
Overall, it is fair, generally balanced, and well-supported, qualities in contrast with much of the selectively reported, two-dimensional, U.S.-based journalism on the subject. There is little fluff. Refreshingly, it provides context and background – viewers aren't left scratching their heads as to how the pieces fit together or with weak claims. It certainly did not whitewash the truth, as the story contains several examples of gratuitous violence and hints that the drug war is one that may never be won. Nothing seems forced or contrived, even Casteneda, who effectively provides a viewpoint at odds with the dominant narrative.
The central players are depicted well: Chief Leyzaola comes across as someone who is easy to hope succeeds, and Braun as a knowledgeable, dedicated expert rather than a "tough guy" federal agent. The one glaring omission, however, is any mention of how the other communities south of Tijuana, which are frequently grouped together with it, are not experiencing the same kind of violence. Regardless, hopefully, there will be more stories like this in the near future more easily seen by American viewers.



Wednesday, July 1, 2009

"Is Mexico actually in danger of a sudden rapid collapse?"



Question: When did this story break? Where was it reported?
Answer: The majority of reports perpetuating this idea were published in January, 2009 (although they continued for some time), with the highest concentration coming in the middle of the month. Most major wire services and numerous print, television, and radio outlets, US and foreign, some more grounded than others, reported some version of it.
Sources:
Question: Where did this idea originate?
Answer: A report written by the United States Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM), an organization within the Department of Defense devoted to the ongoing evolution of American military capabilities.

Sources:
Question: What does this report actually say?
Answer: The report, entitled "Joint Operating Environment 2008", is written primarily for military members and civilian analysts. Its purpose is to lay out strategic possibilities that the United States may face over the next quarter-century. On the very first page, a note clearly states that it is a work of speculation and solely intended to stimulate discussion about potential contingencies over the next 25 years rather than formally predict the future. The report is broken up into six main sections: “Constants”, “Trends Influencing the World’s Security”, ”The Contextual World”, ”Implications for the Joint Force”, ”Some Leading Questions”, and ”Concluding Thoughts”. The third part is longest, and includes among other subheadings, “Technology”, “The Battle of Narratives”, and “Potential Challenges and Threats”, which is broken down by continent and lists the Middle East and central Asia as “The Center of Instability”. Pakistan is described in the “Weak and Failing State” portion as the nation most befitting of the title. In the entire 56-page report, the possibility of Mexico suddenly descending into a “narco-state” is mentioned in a grand total of two paragraphs. By contrast, Russia and China each have three whole pages devoted to them.
Source:
Joint Operating Environment 2008 (PDF)

Question: Mexican President Felipe Calderón has, unsurprisingly, strongly denied the “failed state” claim many times. Has anyone else?
Answer: Yes. Individuals as disparate as U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, and Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry, among others, have all gone on the record refuting the notion.
Sources:
09-Mar-09 "Sarkozy denies Mexico is a 'failed state'" Agence France-Presse
26-Mar-09
"Despite Drug Wars, Mexico Is Not in Danger of Collapse, Obama's Spy Chief Says" U.S. News & World Report
30-Mar-09
"Sen. John Kerry: Mexico Is Not a Failed State" Associated Press

Question: Where does this fit into the overall Drug War narrative?
Answer: Prior to the release of this report, the Drug War was generally underreported outside of southern California and the southwestern border states. These stories, along with an explosion of violence in the border city of Juarez and a major increase in kidnappings (generally involving drug and/or human smugglers) in the Phoenix, AZ area, were a major catalyst for the explosion of coverage the issue has received in the weeks and months since. They spawned a considerable amount of anxiety because most of the general public had not considered how the United States could be affected should the Mexican government fail in its campaign against the cartels. Previously, the Drug War was generally considered by most Americans to be an exclusively “Mexican” problem.